Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies – 10 Year Look
Getting ahead of technology change can be an elusive goal. Fortunately, there are some tools to assist in understanding potential tech changes ahead. This post provides a look into Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, what technology change it has predicted over the past 10 years, and what it predicts for the next 10. In this post an explanation of the hype cycle is presented followed by Gartner’s release of the cycle each of the past 10 years.
I feel fortunate to be involved in several exciting technology projects for Human Capital and Workforce Management including blockchain and cryptocurrency. There is unlimited potential for these technologies however these advancements are not new, although to the general public these ideas are fresh. Blockchain currently sits in Gartner’s “Trough of Disillusionment” (the 3rd of 5) phase of the cycle. Being in this stage of the hype cycle is not a bad thing; as you will read below, it represents a phase when technology businesses start to thrive and fail at the same time. Paving the way for successful application and general business usage.
Gartner and Hype Cycle Overview
Gartner (www.gartner.com) is a world leading business research and advisory company. Gartner developed ‘the hype cycle’ a graphical presentation for representing the maturity, adoption and application of specific technologies.
Here are the five key phases of the hype cycle, developed by Gartner, for a technologies life cycle (Wikipedia at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle).
The following general view of the hype cycle provides more insight on the type of business activity that happens in each segment of the hype cycle.
A lot of technology change has happened over the past 10 years and is projected to come in the next 10. Below are the last 10 Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technology charts starting from 2018 to 2008. Some questions you may ask yourself when viewing these charts include:
What technologies predicted to make an impact in the past succeed? What technologies failed?
What technologies that are predicted to be emerging in the next 10 years do I need to know about now? What do I need to do about it now?
Some technologies that are currently ‘hyped’ seem to have great promise? Where are they actually on Gartner’s hype cycle now? What does that mean about their value and potential success?